{
  "seed": 20260907,
  "jax_version": "0.9.2",
  "holdouts": [
    {
      "name": "synthetic",
      "train_panels": 500,
      "test_panels": 300,
      "train_cases": 4000,
      "history_cases": 2400,
      "converged": true,
      "score": 3.1086244689504386e-17,
      "cl": {
        "log_loss": 0.7457841499432444,
        "brier": 0.4454109879639961,
        "accuracy": 0.665,
        "cases": 1200
      },
      "population_shares": {
        "log_loss": 0.7162698063705824,
        "brier": 0.4315727096911373,
        "accuracy": 0.67,
        "cases": 1200
      },
      "prior": {
        "log_loss": 0.6888677133532792,
        "brier": 0.41259750921996224,
        "accuracy": 0.6983333333333334,
        "cases": 1200
      },
      "posterior": {
        "log_loss": 0.5685330998199896,
        "brier": 0.33456650427470275,
        "accuracy": 0.7641666666666667,
        "cases": 1200
      },
      "probability_max_error": 5.551115123125783e-16,
      "surplus_max_error": 3.552713678800501e-15,
      "welfare_10pct_price_increase": {
        "mean_surplus_change": -0.17477629187541724,
        "std_error": 0.0006806910217915911,
        "surplus_units": "money",
        "normalisation_sensitivity": 0.0,
        "change_identified": true
      },
      "covariance_finite": true,
      "elapsed_seconds": 8.550914665975142,
      "welfare_se_finite_difference": 0.0006806910221655492,
      "welfare_se_error": 3.73958134423924e-13
    },
    {
      "name": "apollo_sp",
      "train_panels": 350,
      "test_panels": 150,
      "train_cases": 4900,
      "history_cases": 1200,
      "converged": true,
      "score": 4.287617879786662e-14,
      "cl": {
        "log_loss": 0.856836418888255,
        "brier": 0.4978341008989622,
        "accuracy": 0.6244444444444445,
        "cases": 900
      },
      "population_shares": {
        "log_loss": 0.8478739348391767,
        "brier": 0.4945271440043575,
        "accuracy": 0.6188888888888889,
        "cases": 900
      },
      "prior": {
        "log_loss": 0.8315103439259848,
        "brier": 0.48891122278902166,
        "accuracy": 0.6188888888888889,
        "cases": 900
      },
      "posterior": {
        "log_loss": 0.7675981035477684,
        "brier": 0.45382490390919983,
        "accuracy": 0.6555555555555556,
        "cases": 900
      },
      "probability_max_error": 5.551115123125783e-16,
      "surplus_max_error": 2.842170943040401e-14,
      "welfare_10pct_price_increase": {
        "mean_surplus_change": -4.99792701730527,
        "std_error": 0.018360048268358214,
        "surplus_units": "money",
        "normalisation_sensitivity": 0.0,
        "change_identified": true
      },
      "covariance_finite": true,
      "elapsed_seconds": 10.608089999994263,
      "welfare_se_finite_difference": 0.018360048987015147,
      "welfare_se_error": 7.186569325745573e-10
    }
  ],
  "apollo_sha256": "7fe1a0905fb970f6dff1a15c220c077af0ec60a452031a36568efe88bcb1c11a",
  "wtp_coverage": {
    "repetitions": 100,
    "usable": 100,
    "mean_error": 0.045793132831677116,
    "rmse": 0.40185079399730717,
    "mean_se": 0.3883664554305238,
    "coverage_95": 0.92,
    "estimates": [
      1.8844410482196927,
      2.3842422178744154,
      1.5524706705311093,
      2.2717633906649404,
      1.938136669411389,
      2.1168575095742517,
      1.4758075822823813,
      1.867744813658559,
      1.808363626289306,
      2.5868170023416885,
      3.5767240536588694,
      1.7892795635091459,
      2.1182781174295786,
      2.255787511564108,
      2.8396183764858445,
      2.18045826380559,
      2.2408003869692332,
      1.8737873122232913,
      2.3158980612033924,
      3.4958089727499293,
      2.4076702260331326,
      3.301321350349181,
      2.6855820563169304,
      2.1336037320560903,
      2.504705808609929,
      1.9381323477780856,
      2.1584394550444874,
      1.8348887805077019,
      1.7310266625402986,
      2.1215115452469675,
      2.4715592413631775,
      2.4712832370638393,
      2.1287679978476906,
      1.835372602210418,
      2.587334049281767,
      2.2597351636316207,
      2.3825499035533158,
      2.964127902408252,
      2.088246704342379,
      3.026961904961804,
      2.200904190609112,
      1.8199096695399408,
      1.9699298734551027,
      1.6668246129046758,
      2.3532377795074444,
      2.1980925286033806,
      2.0845998088406485,
      2.012447074640897,
      2.354673321572638,
      1.9973388829133474,
      1.628854726294539,
      2.420549097244495,
      2.091561138308271,
      1.8042966342337983,
      1.6585020584439296,
      1.8506161128904806,
      2.4827493400744003,
      2.2091241784813267,
      2.2653870561915257,
      2.699947087983863,
      2.0966156487393226,
      2.1391591404867087,
      1.8664835812888343,
      1.714267607332426,
      2.3888144229526245,
      1.6316322454408474,
      2.3633202806714197,
      1.7585956427155793,
      1.6797026603189886,
      2.2455176248394233,
      1.5973385895294945,
      2.6262956187022897,
      2.1968116032766978,
      1.7332550029756588,
      2.716847326606184,
      2.2987417440692504,
      1.909650316245384,
      1.713828506824356,
      2.3461873898721612,
      2.218124323919628,
      2.459228472737057,
      2.5154411448572525,
      2.099644196446391,
      1.719280856223478,
      1.9178225558121442,
      1.976934431334075,
      2.392151559517019,
      2.081921214342402,
      2.1228016270643835,
      2.6933119330493858,
      2.2597071689125388,
      2.0102046495104053,
      2.711606413038819,
      2.3558222657433503,
      2.1351648660850846,
      3.179280214025547,
      2.3622472978250486,
      1.7391753431995665,
      2.2378246050629884,
      2.0356685497085687
    ],
    "truths": [
      2.165347299052056,
      2.136405358726439,
      2.0547486204111296,
      2.11335493539773,
      2.2017805960452304,
      2.151516167667617,
      2.168955296038305,
      2.137485685261019,
      2.162183002159139,
      2.1358693799699546,
      2.140865725417936,
      2.1202539773864895,
      2.1439858760561723,
      2.1324198485642403,
      2.11410899788933,
      2.1390928633511623,
      2.1430915033490288,
      2.1842481428814695,
      2.1213526701608854,
      2.1756988757054567,
      2.183202467596407,
      2.218190079551888,
      2.133203441881542,
      2.1403691746129447,
      2.1043170894444487,
      2.1970297285016254,
      2.152215570844371,
      2.1594615913877204,
      2.129231089589364,
      2.1469440101680064,
      2.1652495809561785,
      2.0858119051222137,
      2.196394980755249,
      2.094898159243828,
      2.149688090936472,
      2.1343819695941386,
      2.2073044443467853,
      2.2429149764257295,
      2.1478274208822734,
      2.1653449518253267,
      2.1971825921928034,
      2.2000359518113917,
      2.116792890410992,
      2.1293978763503936,
      2.0969559773810027,
      2.1784159447059364,
      2.090853861499303,
      2.163059940863634,
      2.134794628736116,
      2.1456998167344987,
      2.2576376670092198,
      2.1364970281451923,
      2.1164564845417386,
      2.1191623791666596,
      2.176503211584575,
      2.0570557441674824,
      2.1473064395000327,
      2.128843575955033,
      2.118138740349322,
      2.2372397059200257,
      2.155736583573789,
      2.1863645968989553,
      2.1692548264787566,
      2.1300182105261074,
      2.2048027628946865,
      2.1227072756464986,
      2.1596664801767296,
      2.077380697704987,
      2.125637259127318,
      2.196612798608793,
      2.174879655958537,
      2.1820671284328146,
      2.1473860638529034,
      2.135092894920771,
      2.1575074228266202,
      2.1219514643860697,
      2.134126400387792,
      2.1413287316247005,
      2.196035864730018,
      2.1698476539220533,
      2.0962080121320663,
      2.1660834795582167,
      2.134830845757823,
      2.088908173401569,
      2.119209351076608,
      2.154992612073757,
      2.210147937754129,
      2.216663721950347,
      2.156725863188934,
      2.129153208382681,
      2.1239373934674592,
      2.2051307525526993,
      2.115817932324779,
      2.2120858769307166,
      2.083357579690912,
      2.243593723194638,
      2.0995402771525002,
      2.1071192876335534,
      2.1782598511588445,
      2.167619698218884
    ],
    "standard_errors": [
      0.23313948489695313,
      0.42926553022530606,
      0.23593212810552022,
      0.40252797457705913,
      0.31905615980554797,
      0.4160431115473008,
      0.1849436127048608,
      0.2388467578896752,
      0.2597405062018948,
      0.6371004722053054,
      1.2704585826327666,
      0.28290423759016897,
      0.2894766036793051,
      0.3150871329963064,
      0.637593548393399,
      0.48273702341897484,
      0.40221513253311725,
      0.2804347149652691,
      0.48288915450564635,
      0.8834798800654757,
      0.5887627625313702,
      0.7857688641954811,
      0.4568668018144249,
      0.31562003728433874,
      0.4386640592265409,
      0.2971888633812647,
      0.354440207138123,
      0.28700254561295196,
      0.20807908748507942,
      0.3569845085588324,
      0.40864902527614133,
      0.536215698018834,
      0.27577774468168254,
      0.22153186865290975,
      0.47880374328046066,
      0.4286478321439992,
      0.4211650854400809,
      0.6451730664012865,
      0.31623989671275643,
      0.6279042113432769,
      0.33654705675836133,
      0.2574239659421901,
      0.3301391105848168,
      0.20795160072666496,
      0.5622011214961223,
      0.3076741840118748,
      0.3447587140122599,
      0.31113512397554144,
      0.5011795698920379,
      0.29872964810716585,
      0.21354596326239494,
      0.3700827659534909,
      0.3368593235128079,
      0.23928411432876368,
      0.1905645156589066,
      0.33609405818603405,
      0.415776448662701,
      0.4146071409602811,
      0.3374677622246026,
      0.5188015856366985,
      0.3181493510518116,
      0.31891039151177264,
      0.2888931288368647,
      0.23495389229104743,
      0.3811479230456117,
      0.24528414038919505,
      0.3393674221405015,
      0.2517648934898816,
      0.2740604281285293,
      0.42483586507874693,
      0.2034676245264431,
      0.43772012745837174,
      0.3805428226159755,
      0.21723970280178068,
      0.5305170971963413,
      0.48625939254983513,
      0.3248403032725894,
      0.19986374283668998,
      0.41144661313026126,
      0.38189208183411477,
      0.4835002495283286,
      0.4171628467057903,
      0.417286265336496,
      0.23727352420311384,
      0.2888206259322648,
      0.26237941287026595,
      0.38285387883898087,
      0.29907569378682264,
      0.47589322320693234,
      0.5826796733096744,
      0.40442564745552684,
      0.34518745267245043,
      0.5070215949197195,
      0.4097390289538448,
      0.39326279582911383,
      0.8596338186952053,
      0.4660022840733197,
      0.2349471716573369,
      0.4314852305642857,
      0.32267674831313214
    ],
    "converged": [
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true,
      true
    ],
    "interpretation": "Exploratory small Monte Carlo; not a precision guarantee or exhaustive coverage study."
  },
  "run_date": "2026-09-07"
}